Jonathan Miller: Smart Guy
His post on the hidden truth of home prices speaks volumes about the real estate industry on both a national and local level. Jonathan effectively points out in this post all of the flaws in the various reportings of numbers across the industry. Furthermore, he shows specifically how each group's interest plays a part in their respective reports. This is no surprise as all industries use statistics to portray the story they want you to hear. I can't help but put another plug in here for transparency of information as this would move us much closer to more accurate and meaningful reports that would become useful tools making important decisions about real estate. Multiple reports using multiple and different data sets are doing nothing for the market but confusing everyone... including me!
In addition to the variety of market reports, Jonathan also points out that the media sometimes interprets the data incorrectly as they did in this instance. It's nice to see that Jonathan caught this and that both his report and the REBNY report showed an increase in median sales from same quarter last year. But, and this is a huge BUT, the discrepancy is still 6%... that's almost a 100% difference in numbers. I'm frustrated!
Since I've put my LES coop on the market, your blog, along with such other must-reads as the Matrix and Curbed, have become a daily obsession. And yes, in this market the news can be contradictory and incredibly changeable, but my feeling is that absorbing as much as possible from a variety of sources is the best way to get a handle on the national and local market.
I am glad to see that NYC housing has continued to increase in value depite all the bubble doomsayers. The bitterness and spitefulness displayed by many of these folks is breathtaking. Although no one can predict with absolute certainty how the market will turn, as a lifetime New Yorker who's seen good times and bad in this city I think that barring some major catastrophe NY real estate will always be a wise investment in the long run.
Its "Matrix" not "The Matrix" and the "smart" reference to me is a vicious rumor but thanks nevertheless! ;-) Yes 6% is a big difference. (I think its about the same amount as the surface area on your Mini Cooper that was dented recently?) So its significant. I can only guess its due to the mix of the data set collected and the timing but I am not sure. I am asked the question every quarter, and I am sure that other report authors are asked the same question.
My other question is this: Why would a real estate trade group release a study that would compete with several of its largest members and release it 5 weeks later each quarter? Its always been a mystery to me.
