2nd Quarter Manhattan Real Estate Market Data
I'm back from vacation today and once again, my week off was insanely busy. The summer market has indeed heated up again and here is the Prudential Douglas Elliman press release of 2nd quarter 2007 residential real estate statistics:
The Manhattan residential real estate market continues to be characterized by falling inventory, rising prices and a record number of sales in contrast to the national housing market.
- The number of sales increased 104% this quarter to 3,939 units as compared to the 1,934 units sold in the prior year quarter.
- Listing inventory dropped 31.5% to 5,237 units from the prior year quarter total of 7,640 units, which had been the highest level recorded in more than ten years.
- Days on market was 117 days this quarter, 4 weeks faster than the same period last year.
- Listing discount was 2.2%, down from 3.5% during the same period last year.
Price levels were generally up this quarter, with the greatest price gains seen in larger apartments, namely 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom units with a 17.6% and 36.2% gain respectively over the same period last year.
-The median sales price increased 1.7% to a record $895,000 over the prior year quarter result of $880,000 (7.2% above prior quarter result of $835,000).
-The average price per square foot increased 5.2% to a record $1,139 over the prior year quarter result of $1,083 (6.4% above the prior quarter result of $1,070).
-The average sales price decreased 3.8% to $1,333,316 over the prior year quarter record result of $1,386,193 (3.3% above the prior quarter result of $1,290,391).
Co-op Market
-The median sales price of a co-op this quarter was $695,000, down 3.7% from the prior year quarter but up 3% from the prior quarter. Average price per square foot and average sales price showed similar patterns.
-Inventory levels for co-ops fell 39.6% to 2,481 units as compared to the prior year quarter total of 4,105 units.
Condo Market
-The median sales price of a condo this quarter was $1,040,000 this quarter, up 5.1% from last year at this time and up 5% from the prior quarter. Average price per square foot and average sales price showed similar patterns.
-Inventory levels for condos totaled 2,756 units, down 22% from the prior year quarter total of 3,535 units. New development is estimated to be 34.9% of condo inventory this quarter.
Luxury Market (upper 10% of all co-op and condo sales)
-The median sales price of a luxury apartment this quarter was $3,600,000 this quarter, down 10% from the record $4,000,000 median sales price set in the prior year quarter last year at this time but up 5.1% from the prior quarter. Average price per square foot and median sales price also showed declines from the prior year quarter. However since this segment of the market is defined as a percentage of the total market, the declines reflected a wider range of included sales due to the surge in the overall number of sales. The 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom markets are more reflective of the high end market this quarter.
Loft Market (co-op and condo sales)
-The median sales price of a loft apartment this quarter was a record $1,650,000 this quarter, up 10% from last year at this time and up 1.2% from the prior quarter. Average price per square foot and average sales price showed 6.5% and 10% gains respectively from the prior year quarter.
The combo of stable demand and decreasing supply is fueling this active summer market. Properties that are priced appropriately continue to be snapped up quickly and those who are "testing the market" with unrealistic asking prices will continue to wait for a buyer. Today's buyer is more patient and savvy than any I've seen in 15 years.
manhattan is just fine now.
I think change is in the air for nyc real estate.
We can not stay immune to huge macro events taking place every where else in this country.
S&P finally says subprime is mostly junk
Marketwatch - July 10, 2007 12:51 PM ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Standard & Poor's just drove a huge harpoon into the heart of the mortgage credit bubble and it's going to take a long time to clean up the mess once the beast finally dies.
S&P, one of the three main credit-rating agencies that served as enablers of the subprime mortgage boom, announced Tuesday that it would lower its ratings on 612 bonds, a small portion of the mortgage-backed securities it had given its seal of approval to. See full story.
But the bigger news is that S&P isn't going along with the charade any more. S&P said it would change its methodology for ratings hundreds of billions of dollars in residential mortgage-backed securities.
And it would review its ratings on hundreds of billions of dollars in the more complex collateralized debt obligations based on those subprime loans.
A lot of debt will be downgraded to junk status. A lot of that debt will have to be sold at fire-sale prices. A lot of pension funds and hedge funds that once thrived on the high returns they could get from investing in subprime junk will now lose a lot of money.
S&P's announcement is a death warrant for the subprime industry. No longer will mortgage brokers be able to help buyers lie their way into a home. Fewer stressed homeowners will be able to refinance their mortgage, thus extending and exacerbating the housing bust.
"We do not foresee the poor performance abating," S&P said. Prices will fall, and foreclosures will rise. More mortgage fraud will be uncovered as the tide goes out.
And hedge funds will have to find another way to beat the market, if they survive this blow, that is.
Rex Nutting, Washington Bureau chief
Thanks for commenting and sharing this story. My 2 big questions are what percentage of the Manhattan buying market utilized subprime mortgages? And how is all of this debt and fire-sale going to effect Wall Street bonuses. I suspect the latter is more of a concern in the NYC market place but I further suspect that we won't know effects until January 2008.
Another related dimension to the Wall Street bonus question you asked is the recent setback in the treasury market, high yile dmarket and leveraged buyout market. Several recent transacitons have gotten "hung" in the market, requiring or threatening the use of bank bridges and the retention of loss making risk positions on bank balance sheets.
Thus far, the shares of the major Wall Street banks have held up decently. Watch where those shares go in comparison to where they began the year to get a sense as to where compensation levels might go.
Thus far, Wall Stret has had a good year, but they are perfectly capable of giving back their gains and then some.
At the very high end, there are dozen of new centimillionaires (and more) as a result of the Blackstone IPO. And there may be more with KKR going public. And they will all be competing to buy Park and River views and willing to spend tens of millions to show off. An economist named Thorstein Veblen called that conspicuous consumption. He was talking about the Roaring Twenties...
Excellent insight. Thanks for sharing. BTW...feel free to send me your centimillionaire friends to compete for those park and river views :-D
